Manuel Ferreira, Chief Strategist, Zürcher Kantonalbank

Manuel Ferreira (Image: Christian Grund)

As a small, open economy, Switzerland relies on stable international relations and strong trade ties.

A Trump victory could lead to uncertainty, as his economic agenda aims to protect U.S. companies from global competition with tariffs. Export-oriented Swiss companies could be hurt by additional U.S. tariffs, as they would make Swiss products more expensive in the U.S., which is now Switzerland’s largest trading partner.

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, supports maintaining close trade relations and is considered more predictable in terms of economic policy.

In the financial sector, a Trump victory could put the Swiss National Bank (SNB) back in the spotlight. During Trump's presidency, the U.S. accused Switzerland of currency manipulation because the SNB intervened in the foreign exchange market to combat a strong franc. This accusation was dropped under Biden.

Given that the Swiss franc might trend stronger next year due to geopolitical uncertainties and that the SNB’s scope for rate cuts is limited, the SNB might resort to currency interventions again. However, under a Trump presidency, the SNB would have less room to maneuver without facing renewed pressure from Washington.