Norman Villamin, Group Chief Strategist, UBP

Norman Villamin (Image: zVg)

Market betting suggests that former President Donald Trump has already secured the race for the White House, despite Vice President Kamala Harris leading in the average national polls.

Equally significant is the impact of Trump’s improved polling figures on the race for control of the House of Representatives. Typically, the party that wins the White House also secures a House majority, as seen in 2016 (Trump/Republicans) and 2020 (Biden/Democrats). A Trump victory would likely extend to a Republican majority in the Senate as well.

Bond and equity investors should be cautious. An increase in Trump’s election odds could lead to rising bond yields, similar to late June when Biden's reelection chances diminished. Gold and hedge funds could provide good protection if these risks materialize around Election Day.