Daniel Murray, Deputy CIO & Global Head of Research, EFG Asset Management

Daniel Murray (Image: zVg)

The upcoming U.S. presidential elections are extremely close. Kamala Harris represents continuity, and if she wins, significant changes are unlikely. A Trump victory, however, could impact three main areas.

First, Trump is likely to create a less burdensome regulatory environment. If, for example, capital requirements are lowered, it could benefit Swiss banks with U.S. subsidiaries. A less stringent U.S. environment could also lead to a relaxation of global regulations.

Second, Trump supports lower corporate and income taxes, which would boost global growth, enhance profitability, and potentially stimulate credit demand. However, Trump's import tariffs could slow global growth.

In the short term, the direct impact on the Swiss financial sector is expected to be minimal, but the election outcome could be significant in the medium to long term.