For me, the turn of the year is less about New Year’s rhetoric and more about a quiet moment to ask myself the right questions. I take stock of the past year: what was chance, what was process quality, and where did risk quietly build up? I don’t start with grand theses, but with what shows up first in practice: demand, payment discipline, and repayments.

We operate in a niche within private debt—micro and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in selected markets across Europe and Central Asia. On that basis, decisions can be made without being driven by short-term market narratives. In this segment, success depends less on forecasts than on how early risks become visible in day-to-day practice—and how consistently one responds.

Macro drivers for 2026: refinancing conditions and predictability shape credit quality

Even if global narratives can shift quickly in 2026, for SMEs it is above all tangible factors that matter. Interest-rate levels and exchange rates feed directly through to lending. They influence refinancing conditions and pricing—and therefore whether repayments remain affordable under pressure. Inflation remains relevant where input and living costs rise and liquidity buffers at smaller businesses shrink. Political and geopolitical risks often work indirectly and can delay investment. For credit quality, what matters is whether predictability is preserved—or whether businesses have to switch to defensive liquidity management at short notice.

Interest-rate pressure and support/guarantee frameworks: examples from core markets

Interest-rate pressure remains elevated in 2026. In Moldova and Romania it is around 5%, in Armenia 6.5%, in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan 7.0%, and in Uzbekistan 11.0%. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, high rates are intended to contain inflation, which strains local companies’ liquidity. In Uzbekistan, the credit market is still being built: demand is rising, while the market can absorb additional lending only to a limited extent. For investors, this can create opportunities—provided local economies grow and credit risks are assessed consistently.

In some markets, this pressure is partly cushioned by support programmes and guarantees. In Moldova, the EBRD and the EU recently provided EUR 22.5 million via local microfinance partners to support SMEs with subsidised loans and incentives for green investment. This is intended to facilitate access to financing for around 98% of companies. In Romania, SME loans have been backed by guarantees of up to 70% to improve access to credit and reduce costs.

Positioning for 2026: selectivity, robust collateral and ongoing monitoring over speed

Our positioning for 2026 is built on discipline. We are not optimising for speed, but for controllability. We invest where repayment capacity is robust, and we hold back when quality does not meet our standards. In practice, that means plausible cash flows, sustainable instalments, collateral that remains enforceable in stress scenarios, and monitoring that makes changes in the portfolio visible early.

What we actively avoid in 2026: growth at any price and diluted credit standards

We avoid growth at any price and any form of «soft» credit policy. We do not relax our standards for cash-flow assessment, collateralisation and ongoing oversight—even when the environment appears to call «opportunity.»

The key in 2026 is operational discipline: it is not enough to monitor rates; it is essential to assess how businesses manage liquidity, adapt costs and respond to external shocks. In Moldova, GDP growth of around 2.5% is encouraging. In Romania, a stable rate environment can open a window of opportunity. In Armenia, rate cuts provide breathing room, while credit standards must remain consistent.

Asset class outlook: micro and SME private debt becomes more selective in 2026

For micro and SME private debt, we expect a 2026 environment in which quality will pay off even more clearly than in phases when capital is readily available and risk is priced less discriminately. If interest rates, exchange rates and political conditions fluctuate more, rigorous underwriting, resilient collateral and ongoing monitoring become even more important.

My year-start conclusion is pragmatic: it is not the big thesis that matters, but the ability to control risk operationally and keep cash flows reliable. If that succeeds, the course for 2026 is clear.

Michele Mattioda, Investor Relations Manager and Member of the Board, MK Global Kapital.