I start the year deliberately, with structure and a certain distance from day-to-day market activity. The first weeks are dedicated to reviewing strategic assumptions, updating scenarios and sharpening priorities within the team. Personal reflection is also part of this, because a clear mind is essential, especially in volatile phases. Operational focus then follows in a very disciplined manner.

The market environment will continue to be shaped by monetary policy, inflation and global growth. What matters less is the absolute level of interest rates than the speed and predictability of monetary policy adjustments. At the same time, productivity development – particularly through digitalisation and AI – remains a key structural driver.

Emerging Markets Are Regaining Attractiveness

Geopolitical risks such as regional conflicts, economic fragmentation and tensions between major economic blocs are less shocking but have a lasting negative impact on supply chains, investments and risk premiums.

Market breadth remains uneven: while mega-caps dominate, selective opportunities are emerging in cyclical and neglected segments. The US is structurally strong, Europe must be viewed in a differentiated manner and selected emerging markets are regaining attractiveness.

Focus on Quality

We anticipate stable global growth of around 3%. This will be driven by fiscal stimulus, gradual monetary easing and a robust investment cycle – particularly in the areas of technology, infrastructure and industry. Equities therefore remain a core component of the portfolio, with a focus on quality, strong cash flow and active sector rotation.

Regionally, the US remains attractive, supported by earnings growth, a robust financial sector and high technology investment. We increasingly see Europe and Switzerland as a sensible addition outside the consensus. They are supported by fiscal stimulus, falling financing costs and moderate inflation. In Asia, we are selective: Japan benefits from reforms and fiscal stimulus, while China remains a tactical issue. Within emerging markets, we favour Latin America and Eastern Europe due to favourable valuations and stronger growth dynamics.

Benefits From Credit Growth And Deregulation

In terms of sectors, we focus on technology, industry, financials and healthcare. In the technology sector, the emphasis is shifting from pure AI narratives to real monetisation, infrastructure and energy supply. Topics such as automation, robotics, quantum computing as well as energy – especially gas, alternative energies and nuclear energy – remain strategically relevant. Financials benefit from credit growth, deregulation and increasing M&A activity.

Opportunities arise primarily from pronounced sector and style rotation. Despite the high valuation of the indices, volatility and political uncertainties regularly lead to mispricing at the individual stock level. Companies with pricing power, stable margins and high cash flow visibility are attractive. Quantitative and rule-based strategies continue to gain in importance, particularly through the use of AI in risk management.

Key Sources of Uncertainty

On the risk side, geopolitical tensions, inflation risks and high government debt – particularly in the US – remain key sources of uncertainty. Active risk management and targeted hedging are therefore an integral part of portfolio allocation.

We deliberately avoid business models that are primarily dependent on valuation multiples, as well as highly indebted stocks and pure momentum trades without a fundamental basis. Instead, we focus on diversification, quantitative strategies and structural portfolio protection measures, such as tailor-made option strategies.

Maurizio Porfiri, CIO at Maverix Securities.