Swiss stocks and bonds have recovered over the past two years, continuing their long-term positive performance. This is the conclusion of Pictet’s annual long-term study.

Starting from 1926, Pictet calculates an average nominal annual return (in Swiss francs) of 4,0 percent for bonds and 7,7 percent for stocks. For a balanced Swiss portfolio (60 percent stocks, 40 percent bonds), this figure would have been 6,6 percent.

(Graphic: Pictet)

The data also show that having patience or a long holding period almost always pays off. An investment in Swiss stocks with a holding period of five years generated a positive return in 85 of the past 99 calendar years, according to the study. With a holding period of ten years, this «hit rate» would have increased to 96 out of 99 years, and with a holding period of 14 years, there would not have been a single instance of a negative return.

Bond returns declined over the course of 2024, according to Pictet. Weaker growth prospects and strong disinflation drove interest rates down in Switzerland. Swiss bonds (Swiss Bond aaa-bbb Total Return Index) once again outperformed their foreign currency counterparts, posting a solid nominal return of 5,3 percent, compared to 7,4 percent in 2023. Adjusted for inflation, the 2024 return was 4,7 percent.

In 2022, Swiss bonds recorded their worst performance ever, with a decline of 12,1 percent.

The Swiss Performance Index (SPI) posted a return of 6,2 percent in 2024, similar to 6,1 percent in the previous year. However, the return was significantly below the long-term geometric average of 7,7 percent since 1926.