Switzerland is not an island – at least according to the Global Business Optimism Index, published by Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) on Wednesday. The index in Switzerland fell to 121 points in the first quarter of 2025 (-14 percentage points). The decline is therefore slightly above the global average of minus 13 percentage points (from 131 to 114 points). The drop is particularly pronounced in Germany at 23 percentage points.

For the study, which is compiled on a quarterly basis, 10,000 companies from 32 countries and 17 sectors were asked about their business expectations. The D&B economic database was also used for this purpose. An index value above 100 indicates an improvement, while a value below 100 a deterioration compared to the base year.

Business Optimism Index Declining in All Countries

It is worth noting that the business optimism index has fallen in all 32 countries surveyed – in 26 of them, export orders have also declined according to D&B. The USA and China are particularly badly affected. The main reasons for dwindling confidence are concerns about a weakening economy, supply chain stability, rising geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in trade policy. No wonder companies are holding back on investments.

Nevertheless, «the trend points to a correction of previously heightened optimism rather than a deterioration in the outlook,» says D&B. In fact, the overall index and its components remain well above the 100 threshold.

In the Global Business Financial Confidence sub-index, Switzerland recorded one of the highest declines in Europe at 17 percentage points. Here too, however, the deterioration in Germany is even greater.

ESG: Divergence Between the EU and the USA

In terms of willingness to invest, Switzerland is just below the global average. Other sub-indices measure the assessment of supply chain stability and ESG focus.

The latter is the only one in which Switzerland did not record a decline and which also increased worldwide. However, D&B only reports the value for the ESG index for the fourth quarter of 2024 and not, as with the other sub-indices, for the first quarter of 2025.

«Capital Costs Remain High»

The responses to the planned ESG-related expenditure for the first quarter of 2025 showed a notable divergence between the EU and the US in the automotive sector, D&B notes. The reason for this is the great uncertainty in the US about the future of sustainability policy in the Donald Trump era.

Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at D&B states: «Companies around the world are making a cautious start to the first quarter of 2025. The high concentration of suppliers is a particular cause for concern - only 51 percent of companies are confident that they will be able to overcome this. In the previous quarter, the figure was 59 percent. At the same time, the cost of capital remains high despite falling central bank interest rates - a warning sign of rising credit default risks. The subdued sales and profitability expectations are further exacerbating the situation.»