Market Fluctuation – This Time It Really is Different
Trading volumes in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) surpassed that seen during the pandemic crash in March 2020. According to Bloomberg data, one third of all shares traded in the U.S. are ETFs.
That poses a danger to the markets that many have been warning about. Index funds are highly liquid and can be sold off quickly in large tranches - exacerbating the herd instinct.
6. Little Growth
The tech sector's bull market in recent years depended on growth stocks. The change in interest rates has put the brakes on that. Ukraine has only made things worse, making investors increasingly risk averse. In Switzerland, that means a return to strong, dividend calls such Roche, Novartis and Nestle, all of whom are not as reliant on high economic growth rates. The strength of the Swiss franc only strengthens that trend even if domestic economic growth remains low.
7. Metaverse Pause
Companies active in the «Metaverse» have been badly hit by recent market developments. But the new segment could make a strong comeback. Technological progress is making new types of investments possible. Things like virtual property, art and licenses that can be bought with Non Fungible Tokens (NFTs). Companies that have anything to do with the Metaverse are increasingly in demand, either as potential takeovers or optimistic growth prospects.
The development is very similar to the start of the internet in the 1990s. Back then, any company that created an internet unit saw a massive increase in market value.
8. Inflation Shadows Equities
Equities should protect against inflation in theory. Higher prices should increase sales nominally, driving shares up. But the opposite can be true. Inflation also increases a company's costs.
But companies that are market leaders in global, specialized sectors can set prices. Energy companies, for example, can pass off the higher prices to consumers directly. Real estate funds are also attractive as property managers can raise rents and sell homes for more. Financials also benefit from higher interest rates although that prospect also increases the prospect of loan defaults.
The difference between interest rates and inflation is currently at a level that has not been seen in decades and only the very pick of the equities crop will offer up enough protection.
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