For Zeno Staub, it is a «strategic priority.» Over the next few years Vontobel will be pushing business in the US, he said at a press conference on Thursday. The plan is to grow the US-based business, as well as the offshore business via its SEC-licensed unit from Switzerland.

One in ten Swiss francs managed by Vontobel already comes from North America. A number Staub is hoping to drive up: «There are many professional investors in the USA, looking for the global expertise that the Zurich-based investment house has to offer,» he said.

Red Ripple, Not Wave

The midterm elections put the United States into the spotlight. Traditionally, gains by the Republican camp as a driver for the stock market and the economy. Although a Republican victory red wave has failed to materialize in Congress, the party's emerging majority in the House of Representatives alone is a gift for businesses, Martin Naville, head of the Swiss-American Chamber of Commerce, told Swiss newspaper «Blick» (paywall, in German)

«The Democrats have stoked uncertainties with their huge state program. The risk of a tax increase or the possible strengthening of unions - all that is now off the table for the next two years.»

Geopolitical thinking

This could incentivize Swiss banks and asset managers to grab a foothold in the States. Especially since the Ukraine war, the energy crisis and inflation have brought a lot of uncertainty to Europe and looking at the ever deeper rifts opening up between the economic superpowers USA and China, it seems the same can be said about growth markets in Asia.

Top Position

The United States on the other hand is the largest wealth management market in the world, offering considerable growth. A study by the consulting firm Boston Consulting Group (BCG) projects annual asset growth of 4.7 percent through 2026.

At a time when Switzerland is threatened to be dethroned as an offshore wealth center, the U.S. may well be able to defend its place as the world's most important financial center ahead of Hong Kong and the UK.

Scorched Earth

Just a few years ago, the USA was considered scorched earth for Swiss banking. As a consequence of the tax dispute, which forced around 100 Swiss banks to pay nearly 7.5 billion dollars in fines and settlements, institutions including Wegelin and Bank Frey perished and Credit Suisse gave up private banking in the US.

UBS, which in 2009 was the first Swiss bank to have to pay a penalty of 780 million dollars in the tax dispute, has long since set its sights on big things again in the USA. Alongside Asia, the Americas region is considered the most important growth market for the world's largest private bank. The third quarter proved challenging for UBS, with a double-digit drop in revenues and a cost/income ratio of 83 percent. On the other hand, growth was impressive, with $4 billion in new fee-generating assets and $1 billion in lombard loans (lending).

New York Pilgrimage

UBS’s top managers recently traveled to New York, with the rumored intention of getting the bank’s share price moving, which is still close to its book value. President Colm Kelleher and CEO Ralph Hamers are said to have explicitly referred to UBS's international orientation - and probably not least to its «footprint» in the United States.

In the meantime, Pictet, which is still awaiting the end of its US tax dispute, opened an office in New York in 2020. The Geneva-based private bank belongs to the Category 1 banks, against which the US Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation.

Ideal Conditions

Then there is Julius Baer, still stuck in deliberations. Speaking to finews.com last November, CEO Philipp Rickenbacher said the US is the most competitive wealth management market in the world, where no one was waiting for a foreign player. «If we were to make a move toward the U.S., several conditions would have to be right,» he said.

Julius Baer might still be waiting for the ideal constellation; the trek westward is not likely to get underway for the «bears» any time soon.