It is difficult to see how the industry can simply recover from the deepest crisis in a very long time and provide the same level of service as before. Flying will get more expensive and hence there will be fewer trips. UBS expects Swiss tourism to narrow by some 35 percent this year alone.

The situation in the services industry is much more precarious than in the manufacturing industry and presents the services industry with unheard of challenges, while swings in production of the size are not new to the manufacturing industry, said the chief investment office of UBS Switzerland in a study published on Friday.

Focusing on the Most Relevant

Looking at manufacturing and finance provides some of the few bright spots. Even if most industries will suffer a setback this year, many still seem strong enough to survive the crisis – as long as it doesn't extend much longer or get even much worse, of course. Insurers, banks, or IT firms will probably see their gross value added decline by a maximum of 5 percent. For telecoms, health care and of course drugmakers, UBS is even more optimistic, forecasting a plus of as much as 5 percent. All the industries mentioned have what UBS believes is a high degree of resilience vis-a-vis the corona crisis.

If Switzerland manages to safeguard most of its manufacturing, finance, IT  and research facilities, if the country successfully maintains advantageous conditions for the economy compared with other countries, then it is likely to see a relatively benign end to the era of the Covid-19 virus.

The engines behind Swiss growth, such as drugmaking, insurers, IT, research and communication are only marginally affected. This confirms our expectation of a swift recovery of the economy and a continued high competitiveness of Switzerland, concluded UBS in its report.

It Is the Old Story of the Strong vs. the Weak

At the end, a picture of huge contrasts emerges. The existing opposites will get even stronger, with the poor getting poorer (they are not allowed to work anymore, such as in India) and the rich richer, which a great starting position to recover from the slump. It's a picture that doesn't ring true only for individuals, but also states and their economy.

Even if we manage to combat the virus to such an extent that we can live without any major restrictions, the shadows of the devastation aren't likely to be removed that quickly.