For example, Crealogix strategy head Richard Dratva in 2014 outlined banks as a showroom of assembled pieces. Leaning on a prediction by «future»-blogger Chris Skinner, Dratva said banks will become a sort of web-based life map, helping families decide whether their home is big enough to house another kid and connecting them with their neighbors.

Banks, Interrupted

In fact, banks totally missed out, and consumer comparison websites (perhaps viewed as more trustworthy) stole a march. Potential home-owners still seem to actually talk to their neighbors to get the low-down on their new environment.

Meanwhile, fintechs stole niche business from banks, most notably with payment apps like Revolut, Curve, or N26. Start-ups also forced banks to rethink their own «platform» ideas: surging volumes at Loanboox, for example, illustrate that banks can successfully be disintermediated.

Women: Still Ignored

Another ten-year-old prediction (from BCG) proved hugely prescient, but went ignored: in 2010, the consulting firm urged private banks to pursue wealthy women – long underserved – as a target market. Despite several short-lived efforts (Vontobel, UBS), wealth managers largely ignored this advice.

BCG’s analysts noted that women control more than one-quarter of wealth – and yet half of all rich women were it surveyed felt their private bankers could do a better job of addressing female client needs.

Women want to be treated the same as any client, without bias or stereotype, BCG. At the same time, private bankers should recognize that women may have subtly different needs and expectations. A recent study indicates BCG’s advice went unheeded.

Banks' Obsoletion

Three years ago, Deloitte struck a buoyant tone: After several stagnant, hidebound years marked by fear and self-doubt, the consulting firm said it was «convinced that the next three years will see full confidence restored and that bankers will once again be able to focus,» in its annual ranking.

Banks would prioritize clients more, enhance their «customer experience,» use fintech and social media, and sort out their processes, Deloitte said. In August, KPMG put the kibosh on the prediction, diagnosing almost exactly the same weaknesses of the once-flourishing Swiss industry, as finews.com reported.

What stands out in the predictions of McKinsey and Co is not what they got wrong – but what they didn’t see coming. finews.com’s incomplete compendium of 2010 studies makes no mention of specific inroads through fintech like payments, or the threat of banks becoming obsolete.

Blindsided by Crypto

Highly-paid consultants were also apparently blindsided by blockchain and cryptocurrencies: no one predicted a decentralized financial network outside the purview of central banks (and if they had, they likely would have been a laughingstock).

The bitcoin network was created nearly 11 years ago; consultants are more receptive in the ten-year predictions currently circulating. Cryptocurrencies can become widespread, Deutsche Bank predicted in a 2030 «Konzept» paper: it will threaten cash if digital assets can establish legitimacy with governments and regulators as well as win a foothold with payment giants like Apple Pay.