Joschka Fischer is a huge fan of the European idea. Nearly fifteen years after the 71-year-old left politics, the ex-cabinet minister still regularly speaks on Europe the bloc's current structural crisis.

He wasn't in an especially upbeat mood when a handful of journalists were invited by Swiss private bank Union Bancaire Privée to hear him speak. Fischer had been invited by UBP's CEO in Zurich Adrian Kuenzi and investment boss Norman Villamin.

Europe on Losing Side

Fischer, who was Germany's foreign minister and vice-chancellor from 1998 to 2005 as well head of the Council of Europe, said he feared that Europe would get eaten up by a trade war between the U.S. and China. He delivered a precise and well-founded analysis based on current events in business and finance to underpin his theory of «Europe on the losing side».

His first point: «I absolutely cannot understand and it was a huge mistake to prevent the merger between Siemens and Alstom,» referring to a deal agreed between the German and French giants in 2017. The European Commission put the kibosh on the deal earlier this year.

Risk of Relegation

Fischer's second point homed in on the finance industry: «To want to create a 'national champion' as we have heard in the recent discussions between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, is useless,» the outspoken politician said. The two banks recently abandoned their merger talks, which had been nurtured by Berlin.

Instead, Fischer said Europe should seek to create a bloc-wide champion. Fischer said he doesn't specifically mean a European financial giant – but for Europe to be increasingly mindful of what it can to counter the risk it will be relegated to the margins by U.S. and economically booming China.

Tech Arms Race

Once part of Germany's radical left-wing who worked as a taxi driver in Frankfurt, Fischer now sounds more like an avowed capitalist when he talks about «creating a competitive European platform». This can only be achieved through partnerships and collaborations. «Without a united Europe, we risk its downfall,» is his dour prediction.

Green party politician Joschka Fischer in 1983 (Image: German Federal Archives)

The drama predicted by Fischer is not due to a clash of ideologies as in the Cold War, or even military conflict in Europe. Instead, he sees the shift for economic imperialism from west to east and the race between the U.S. and China for technology dominance as the cause.

Slow European Ways

Europe has done little in response – even if the bloc possesses the means to do so. «Europe's strengths are in research and science,» he said – but also mentioned its drawbacks: «Europe is also terribly slow in shaping its findings into successful business models.»

He views European champions as the answer: the bloc risks being left behind in the tech arms race between superpowers U.S. and China. «Then I fear Europe would have to pay a very high price.

Dollar, Euro Trumps

Ironically, Fischer views the U.S.' as well as Europe's trump cards in finance – specifically in its currencies. The euro has established and proven itself as a dominant currency alongside the U.S. dollar. For the U.S., its currency represents its most powerful tool.

Fischer said efforts by China to establish the renminbi represent another conflict between the two world superpowers. «The U.S. will do everything in their power to defend the monopoly of the U.S. dollar,» he said.